Lions and Texans and Cowboys, Oh My!

In today’s edition of “Ten Things I Think I Think,” His Majesty made the following polarized statements about the two quarterbacks from last year’s Detroit Lions, Dan Orlovsky and Jon Kitna, who changed teams during the off-season:

a. The Houston Texans signed Dan Orlovsky for $9.15 million over three years. Stunning. They really think of Orlovsky as a solid backup quarterback? On what planet?

g. The Cowboys got better at backup with the deal for Jon Kitna.

Neither of these players is anything to write home about, but The King would like you to believe that one of them is remarkably better than the other, which is simply not true.

Last year, Orlovsky made eight starts and averaged 201 passing yards per game; Kitna made four starts and averaged 208 passing yards per game (I doubled his yardage output in the fourth game to account for the half he missed due to injury). Orlovsky threw eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, an average of one touchdown pass and one pick per contest; Kitna threw five touchdown passes and five interceptions, an average of 1.25 touchdowns and 1.25 picks. As far as completion percentage is concerned, Orlovsky converted 56.1 percent of his passes and Kitna completed 56.7 percent. Orlovsky was sacked 14 times (1.75 times per game), while Kitna was sacked 15 times (3.75 times per game). Neither player won a game.

I suppose one could make the argument that Kitna is a serviceable backup quarterback, but judging by their nearly identical stats from last season, it would be nearly impossible to conclude that he is a substantially better player than Orlovsky. And while Kitna will certainly be an upgrade over the woeful Brad Johnson in Dallas, his age (36) and recent injury history compounded with his propensity for sustaining sacks make him a less reliable option than the younger, healthier but equally mediocre Orlovsky…on any planet. Of course, as The King and The Don (Banks) continue to point out, it is a waste of time to make rational arguments based on statistical evidence and a larger sample size when one could simply use a single play to make the case against the “dim-witted” Orlovsky. He lost his bearings and stepped out of bounds for a safety one time, which clearly proves that he is not only a substantially worse player than the man he replaced in the line-up (Kitna) but one of the worst players ever to play the game. I give up, Your Majesty, you win…

Update: In MMQB Tuesday Edition, an emailer (I swear it wasn’t me using a pseudonym!) called King out on his irrational treatment of Orlovsky. The King’s response: Dan Orlovsky is a nice third quarterback who, given a chance, might be able to play in the NFL at a competent level someday. He has given me no reason to think he deserves to get $3 million a year and be one of the highest-paid backup quarterbacks in football. Okay, Your Majesty, your complaints about Orlovsky’s high salary as a backup make perfect sense…until you take into consideration the salary that Jon Kitna was paid last year to be an older, less healthy and more sack-prone version of Orlovsky: $5 million. Looks like I won Rounds one and two of this Royal jousting match…

King Says, Benji Says (Wild Card Weekend)

With the New Year comes a new picking season. His Majesty may have defeated me in our regular season battle, but the playoff war begins now. The stats over the past four weeks (Benji 43-21, King 37-27) tell an interesting story: When the weather cools down, so does The King. His Majesty enters postseason play as an unquestioned favorite over yours truly, but one of us is clearly more prepared for the winter weather. Unfortunately for me, I dressed up a week too early—the four wild card games will be played outside in the warm weather climates of Arizona, Florida and California, and inside a dome in frigid Minnesota. Maybe I should just go ahead and let Brian do the picking from now on? After all, he was the winner of our three-way picking contest. For those of you who have been waiting all year for Brian to back up his picks with some analysis of his own, look no further than the end of this post. Let the playoffs begin! I feel as though a wild weekend is in the cards, so to speak…

Regular Season:

Peter King (162-93-1)
Benji (155-100-1)
Brian (166-89-1)

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

The King says:

Obviously, it’s hard to not sing the praises of Matt Ryan, the Offensive Player of the Year. Let’s look at how Ryan performed on the road in the most hostile of environments, in games at 2008 playoffs teams: lost at Carolina and Philly, won at San Diego and Minnesota. Total interceptions: two. Total time sacked: six. Ben Roethlisberger on the road against playoff teams this year: 1-2, two picks, 11 sacks. My point is, I don’t think Ryan flew cross-country Thursday night thinking to himself: “Gee, this game’s going to be too big for me.”

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 33, Arizona Cardinals 17

Benji says:

The Roethlisberger/Matt Ryan comparison is totally relevant—in an alternate universe where the Falcons and Steelers play in the same conference and face each other in the first round of the playoffs. What about the Cardinals? Arizona’s offense scored the second most points in the NFC (tied with the Giants) and veteran quarterback Kurt Warner threw for over 4,500 yards with 30 touchdown passes. The Cardinals may not be able to run the ball effectively, but in temperate conditions, their aerial attack should be successful against an Atlanta pass defense that was ranked 23rd in the league. The Falcons should be able to score plenty of points against the Arizona defense as well, but in a shootout-style game, I’ll take the team with the playoff-proven quarterback over the one with the outstanding rookie passer.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 33, Atlanta Falcons 30

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-8)

The King says:

The Chargers have the best shot of any home ‘dog to win this weekend. Peyton Manning is on a ridiculous late-season run, but Philip Rivers might be individually hotter (11 touchdowns, one interception in San Diego’s 4-0 December). While I don’t think the Colts will go into this game thinking it might be the swan song for Tony Dungy, who is expected to ride off into the real-world sunset after the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the trusted defensive vets like Dwight Freeney goes around to his guys when things get hot late in the game and says we’re not letting our guy go down like this again, in the first game of the playoffs.

Prediction: Indianapolis 29, San Diego 23

Benji says:

If you recall, I picked the Indianapolis Colts to reach and win the Super Bowl this year back before the season began. So, why, you ask, would I consider picking against them after a 12-4 season, when they are facing a team that squeaked into the playoffs at 8-8? Because the Colts team that I expected to see never quite emerged. Indianapolis has no running game and no deep threat at wide receiver (Marvin Harrison looks washed up) and, therefore, has an offense that cannot consistently score points. The Chargers are hot right now and really have nothing to lose at this point. I may be reading too much into their big win over the defensively challenged Broncos, but I see a team in San Diego that has found its offensive identity and has rediscovered its running game. If you cannot run the ball in the playoffs, you are certain to exit early…

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 27, Indianapolis Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)

The King says:

They played in Week 7, at Miami, and Baltimore won 27-13. Lesson from that game: Chad Pennington was an efficient 68-percent passer, and the Wildcat gave the Fish nothing. They ran it five times, for minus-one, five, zero, minus-three and three yards. Pennington will try to test Baltimore’s corners a few times downfield, and his success or failure will determine the outcome. My view, obviously, is that the Comeback Player of the Year will not have one final comeback in him Sunday. Too much front-seven pressure from the unpredictable Ravens.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 16, Miami Dolphins 6

Benji says:

The Dolphins have succeeded all year long by limiting turnovers and capitalizing on their opponents’ mistakes…oh, and of course, the Wild Cat formation. That formula failed to work earlier in the season against the Ravens, and I would be surprised to see the Dolphins win this game barring a defensive collapse by Baltimore. The Ravens’ defense can be beaten deep (as the Colts and Cowboys demonstrated earlier this season) but a short passing/running-based offense like Miami’s should not pose any problems for it. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they got stuck with a terrible first round match-up.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 23, Miami Dolphins 13

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

The King says:

You put Brad Childress on sodium pentathol, and he’ll tell you he wishes he didn’t have to run Adrian Peterson so much this year (363 times), helping him to a bad ankle entering the second season. He’ll admit it was about right to have Peterson and Chester Taylor combine for 464 carries, but Peterson running it 78 percent of those carries was just too much. Well, forget that now. The Vikes have to get on Peterson’s back one more time to have a good chance here, and I say the Eagles — better than you think against the run, 3.5 yards per opposing carry — will hold the gimpy Peterson under 80.

Prediction: Philadelphia 20, Minnesota 13

Benji says:

The Vikings are probably the worst 10-6 team in recent memory. Tarvaris Jackson, as anyone who has been watching him play the past few weeks can attest, has decided to take a page out of Eli Manning’s book (circa ’05-’06) by throwing the ball up for grabs, off his back foot, anytime that he faces a blitz. Against an aggressive defense like Philadelphia’s, Jackson is in for a long game. The Eagles, like the Chargers, are playing with house money at this point.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 30, Minnesota Vikings 13

And now let’s check in with Brian:

Playoffs? Playoffs!?!
Benji will back me up, my Superbowl prediction since Week One has been Steelers versus Eagles. I still have two teams in the playoffs, Peter King has zero (he picked the Patriots and Cowboys). I also beat him in the regular season. I win.

Ravens over Dolphins

Good defense beats gimmick offense.

Falcons over Cardinals

Both teams are inexperienced (the Falcons are young, the Cardinals rarely make the playoffs) but the Falcons can run the ball and the Cardinals fail to impress me.

Colts over Chargers

Peyton Manning will figure out a way to win. I don’t think the Chargers are healthy, and I think they’ll have a let down because they are relieved to sneak into the playoffs.

Eagles over Vikings

McNabb has been here before, a playoff veteran. The Vikings don’t impress me that much and I don’t really think their coach is any good.

Note: I picked the exact same way that King did. I really have no idea. I’d rather go with logical picks and be wrong for educated guesses, than do something random like pick the Cards to win because all home teams “can’t” lose.

King Says, Benji Says (Week 16)

Thursday night picks are so overrated. Am I right? His Majesty and I needed some alone time so that we could settle our differences in the wake of our “trial separation” last week (when I briefly left him for Brian). Both The King and I (as well as nearly every other football analyst out there) expected the Colts to win and they did. The Jaguars kept the score close, however, losing by a single touchdown. I see myself as the picking equivalent of a 5-9 division rival in my match-up with The King, and while he has an insurmountable lead on me with two weeks remaining, I would love to narrow that gap and make the final score a respectable one. After all, I need to find something to build on for next year…

Last Week:

Peter King (11-5)
Benji (11-5)
Brian (9-7)

Overall (not including the Thursday game):

Peter King (146-77-1)
Benji (136-87-1)
Brian (146-77-1)

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

The King says:

Although I arrived late, I scalped a ticket and bought a permanent cushy seat on the Joe Flacco bandwagon. And maybe this is unfair, but it’s time for Flacco to make a play to save the Ravens’ season. In the past two weeks, Flacco’s a 43-percent passer. In the past two weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, Flacco 5.1. I know the defenses are getting paid too, but kid, it’s time to grow up. Fast.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 16, Baltimore Ravens 13

Benji says:

I’m trying to figure out why you’re jumping on the Flacco bandwagon now, Your Majesty, when, as you point out, he has not played well down the stretch. It actually sounds to me as though you are jumping off his bandwagon, as you call on him to “make a play to save the Ravens’ season” and then predict that he will not come through. Clichés and effective analysis have always had a rocky relationship at best, but you just took that disjunction to a whole new level. As for the game? The Ravens have a very good defense but it can be beaten by big plays, as the Colts demonstrated last month. The Dallas offense, which is more than capable of producing big plays in the passing game, is playing really well right now in contrast with its Baltimore counterpart.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 27, Baltimore Ravens 17

Cincinnati Bengals (2-11) at Cleveland Browns (4-10)

The King says:

Someone check Braylon Edwards’ birth certificate. I think he’s 12. Did you see those woe-is-me comments from him the other day? Wrong time, Braylon. Waaaaaaaaay wrong.

Prediction: Cleveland Browns 23, Cincinnati Bengals 16

Benji says:

Your Majesty, while I agree with your assessment of Braylon Edwards—he really does come across as having the emotional maturity of a 12-year old—I fail to see how this observation is helpful in explaining why you think that the Browns will win the game. The Bengals just beat the Redskins (a decent team), while the Browns were blown out by the Eagles on Monday Night. While Cincinnati’s quarterback situation is not ideal, Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like Carson Palmer compared to Ken Dorsey. But what do I know? Braylon Edwards’ immature antics will surely inspire his team to play at a higher level…

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 26, Cleveland Browns 13

New Orleans Saints (7-7) at Detroit Lions (0-14)

The King says:

You know, if I keep picking the Lions, they have to win some week. Don’t they? I guess I look at it this way: I can’t believe a team can go 0-16 in this era’s NFL, and I can’t believe with the effort Rod Marinelli has these guys giving they’re going 0-16. If Detroit can stop Pierre Thomas (this is what it’s come to for New Orleans), the Leos will be 1-14 Sunday night.

Prediction: Detroit Lions 23, New Orleans Saints 21

Benji says:

History says that the Lions will find a way to win a game, but I don’t see it happening against the Saints. New Orleans’ offense will put plenty of points on the board and I cannot see the Lions keeping up unless the Saints’ defense completely falls apart. I maintain that Detroit’s best opportunity to win a game was two weeks ago against the Vikings…

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 34, Detroit Lions 23

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (12-2)

The King says:

I want you to understand what a feat it is that Pittsburgh has not allowed 300 yards in any game this season. Case in point, Atlanta is playing good defense this year — only 11 teams have allowed fewer points. The Falcons have allowed 12 of 14 foes to gain more than 300 yards in a game this year.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Tennessee Titans 12

Benji says:

Your Majesty, I agree with you that Pittsburgh’s defense this season has been pretty impressive but I wish that you had spent a little more time discussing this very important match-up, which will likely decide the number one seed in the AFC. The Titans are hurting right now, so I do not seem them pulling this one out either. Without defensive tackle Albert Haynseworth and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch in the line-up, Tennessee will struggle to produce a consistent pass rush without blitzing. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of finding openings down the field and should be able to take advantage.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Tennessee Titans 13

Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

The King says:

If you haven’t noticed, this is the score of every Miami game. Every week.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 20, Kansas City Chiefs 16

Benji says:

I am more than a little confused by your analysis for this game, but I suppose that The King’s words work in mysterious ways. Miami has not scored exactly 20 points in any game this season, only one of its opponents has scored exactly 16 points in a game, and you normally predict strange lopsided scores in Miami’s games, despite the fact that its offense cannot convert on third down. All that being said, the Dolphins do not make critical mistakes on offense and are much less likely than the Jets to lose a late-season game to a bad team.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17

San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (2-12)

The King says:

So I’m on a two-game losing streak in my WEEI Fantasy League in Boston. (Don’t ask me for fantasy tips. I stink like swine.) And this morning, I picked up Shaun Hill to replace Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Shaun, if you want positive press in the most prestigious sports magazine in the world, you’ll throw for 343 and three touchdowns Sunday.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 31, St. Louis Rams 13

Benji says:

As a former reader of The King’s “fantasy tips” segment a few years back, I can attest to his swine-like stinking. He could be onto something here, but I would still take my chances with McNabb. Oh, sorry, we were supposed to talk about the game, not the fantasy implications of a single player involved. Well, regardless of how Shaun Hill plays for the 49ers, I still think they win easily against the Rams, who are truly awful.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 26, St. Louis Rams 13

Arizona Cardinals (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5)

The King says:

Cards have lost three East Coast games by an average of 22 points, and I will join A-Rod at Kabbalah classes if the Pats don’t make it 0-4. Forecast for Sunday, 1 p.m. in Foxboro: 33 degrees, 17-mph winds, 60 percent chance of flurries.

Prediction: New England Patriots 29, Arizona Cardinals 10

Benji says:

Regardless of the weather forecast (and worrying about flurries in your pick is a bit of a stretch), the Cardinals have almost nothing to play for right now. They clinched their division and cannot move up or down in the playoff seeding. Arizona may bench receiver Anquan Boldin so as to get him healthy for the playoffs, which leads me to believe that it is not really concerned with the outcome of this game. New England needs to win out in order to be assured of a playoff spot and will surely put forth a good effort in this game.

Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Arizona Cardinals 13

San Diego Chargers (6-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)

The King says:

The Bucs need to beat the Chargers and Raiders at home to be in prime playoff position. I can’t confirm this, but I think Jon Gruden just sent a love letter to Howard Katz, the NFL TV honcho who presides over schedule-making, for this sweet end-of-season slate.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, San Diego Chargers 6

Benji says:

I’m sure the schedule didn’t look quite as sweet back when it was made, as the Chargers were widely viewed as Super Bowl contenders. San Diego is still capable of winning this game, but I do not trust this team at all. The Chargers have been inconsistent all season long, and have not played well enough on the road for me to justify picking them to win here. Still, Tampa’s defense has not looked very good over the past few weeks and its offense has trouble scoring points…

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16, San Diego Chargers 13

Buffalo Bills (6-8) at Denver Broncos (8-6)

The King says:

The Bills will play hard, and I’m not sure what the Broncos will play for, after learning they’ve clinched the AFC West shortly after the opening kickoff.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 20, Buffalo Bills 19

Benji says:

I tend to agree with you, Your Majesty, because I do not see the Chargers traveling to Tampa and beating the Buccaneers. The Bills make so many critical mistakes, however, that, like you, I cannot in good conscience pick them to win a game right now.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 20, Buffalo Bills 19

Houston Texans (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (3-11)

The King says:

Prediction: This will be a single-play highlight on NBC’s “Football Night in America.” And it will be Matt Schaub throwing a 63-yard touchdown pass in the McAfee muck to Andre Johnson.

Prediction: Houston Texans 38, Oakland Raiders 13

Benji says:

After knocking off the Titans and the then-desperate Packers in consecutive weeks, the Texans are starting to turn some heads. It’s too bad that they started off the season so poorly (and with so many road games due to Hurricane Ike) because they are playing well enough to beat just about any team in the AFC right now. I agree with you, Your Majesty, The Raiders will be completely outclassed in this game.

Prediction: Houston Texans 38, Oakland Raiders 13

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)

The King says:

Pat Williams’ absence with a broken shoulder is the answer to the prayers of Michael Turner (27 carries, 120 yards, 37 minutes of Falcons possession time).

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 23, Minnesota Vikings 16

Benji says:

Even with Pat Williams out, I don’t think you can beat Minnesota simply by running the ball. The key to this game will be Atlanta receiver Roddy White, who should find plenty of openings against the Vikings’ unreliable pass defense (22nd in the league in yards allowed). I also feel like Minnesota’s inconsistent starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is due for a bad game after two straight solid outings…

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 27, Minnesota Vikings 19

New York Jets (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-11)

The King says:

A 19-point loss at San Diego is understandable. A three-point loss at Oakland is not. A 10-point loss at San Francisco … well, that’s what you call a trend. The Jets and the West Coast don’t mix this year, particularly not when it’s the relatively beloved Mike Holmgren’s last game in Seattle … and Kathy Holmgren is raising the 12th Man Flag up the flagpole in the south end zone before the game. If you haven’t been to Qwest, let me explain this: Raising that flag is the latter-day equivalent of Harry Caray singing in the 7th. Very big out there.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 22, New York Jets 20

Benji says:

I’m not sure if it’s just the West Coast travel element that has hurt the Jets this season—I think they might just have a mediocre team. New York’s run defense is solid (ranked sixth in the league at 3.7 yards per carry) but its pass defense is ranked 29th in the league in passing yards allowed. Its running game is solid but its passing offense is a complete mystery, looking unstoppable some weeks and completely ineffective in others. The Jets are more than capable of losing to a Seattle team that almost beat the Patriots a few weeks back—the weather conditions (an 80 percent chance of snow) would seem to favor the team with the better running game and run defense, though, so I’ll stake my claim with the Jets.

Prediction: New York Jets 23, Seattle Seahawks 16

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Washington Redskins (7-7)

The King says:

Late in the game, all Dan Snyder can think is: “Now where’d I put Mike Holmgren’s cell number?”

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Washington Redskins 16

Benji says:

The Redskins have completely imploded at this point, and will likely be without the services of running back Clinton Portis. The Eagles should win this game very easily. Any speculation about the future coaching situation in Washington seems a bit premature, though, Your Majesty. We are picking football games here, not gossiping on Si.com’s Truth and Rumors site…

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 30, Washington Redskins 13

Carolina Panthers (11-3) at New York Giants (11-3)

The King says:

Well, look on the bright side, Giants: At least you’re going to score a touchdown. This game will come down to a battle of run defenses, and a duel of the biggest back in the game, Brandon Jacobs (playing hurt) and a mid-sized back playing like Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams. I think Williams breaks 100.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 17, New York Giants 13

Benji says:

The Panthers’ running game looks unstoppable right now and the Giants’ looks completely stagnant. Teams are playing base defenses against New York and forcing quarterback Eli Manning to beat them by throwing deep. Without a deep play threat and with Brandon Jacobs still hurting (even if he plays), the Giants’ offense is in serious trouble right now. Three weeks ago, I would not have even considered picking the Panthers to win this game, and now I do not see how they can lose.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, New York Giants 17

Green Bay Packers (5-9) at Chicago Bears (8-6)

The King says:

For those wanting to blame the Packers falling to 5-10 on Aaron Rodgers replacing Brett Favre, I bring you these two numbers: 339 and 243. The first is how many points the Pack has allowed through 14 games this year. The second is how many points they allowed through 14 games last year.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 20

Benji says:

I believe that a few weeks back, YOU implied that the Packers would have a better record right now with Brett Favre at quarterback, Your Majesty. I’m not going to let that one slide, either—expect a follow-up post in the near future…. As for this game, the Bears’ offense has looked shaky as of late, but Chicago has so much more to play for than Green Bay right now. I expect running back Matt Forte to have a huge day against the Packers’ horrendous run defense, which is allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 23, Green Bay Packers 16

King Says, Benji Says (Week 15 Thursday Edition)

Surprise! His Majesty didn’t show up for work on time yet again. I’m okay with it, really, because if I had sustained the beating that he did last week, I would be too embarrassed to show my face around these parts too. Whatever, he can play football by himself in an empty studio—now that I’ve proven that I can live up to my true picking potential, I am in search of cooler friends. How about Brian? He almost picked as many games correctly as I did last week (12 to my 13) so I guess that he’ll do for now…

New Orleans Saints (7-6) at Chicago Bears (7-6)

Benji says:

I’m sure that His Majesty will have something to say about the warm weather Saints traveling to cold weather Chicago. He might be onto something there—while the conditions won’t be terrible (a low of 19 degrees with scattered snow showers and 10-15 mph winds), they certainly will work in Chicago’s favor: The Saints are 6-1 in their weather-neutral domed stadium, but only 1-5 on the road; quarterback Drew Brees has 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions at home, and seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the road; finally, the Bears seem to have the Saints’ number at home, as New Orleans’ season has ended in Chicago each of the last two years. There’s also a 50/50 chance that The King wastes his entire paragraph of analysis on some inane anecdote about Bears running back Matt Forte. I do tend to agree with His Majesty that Forte gives Chicago an edge, because in late season, cold weather games, passing games are neutralized to a degree and the team that can run the ball more effectively usually wins—still, unlike The King, I try to make comprehensive and coherent arguments in my analysis. Is that too much to ask for? Far too often His Majesty ends up being right, but is right for the wrong reasons or for reasons that only make sense to him.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 23, New Orleans Saints 16

King Says, Benji Says (Week 14)

After dealing with The King’s absences and tardiness numerous times over the past few weeks, I decided to give him a taste of his own medicine: instead of showing up for work at the usual time, I came in several hours late, long after our scheduled photo shoot and pre-picks buffet lunch. As you can see from the picture, His Majesty did not handle my absence very well. I was told that he quickly brightened up, however, when he was reminded that he has a thirteen-pick lead over me in the standings. He may be an emotionally needy doofus with questionable writing skills, but dammit, the man knows how to pick football games!

Last Week:

Peter King (10-6)
Benji (9-7)
Brian (11-5)

Overall (not including the Thursday game):

Peter King (125-66-1)
Benji (112-79-1)
Brian (125-66-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

The King says:

This game’s got Matt Forte written all over it. Strange that a guy in Chicago would be underrated, but Forte is. No other player in the NFL has touched the ball from scrimmage as much as Forte — 296 times for 1,360 yards and 10 touchdowns. (Adrian Peterson has 288 rushes/receptions, Michael Turner 286, Clinton Portis 278.) And Forte’s the reason the Bears — with three straight home games now, in December weather, in the Windy City — are still in the pennant race.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Benji says:

I was a little thrown off by your mention of the Bears’ involvement in a “pennant race,” Your Majesty, but I suppose that even playing a different sport, they have a better chance of making it to the World Series than the Cubs do. As for the Bears’ chances of making the NFL postseason, they still have a shot at winning the division if they are able to win all three of their home games down the stretch. Jacksonville should not pose much of a threat, with an offense that can only succeed by running the ball effectively matched up against Chicago’s third-ranked run defense.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Minnesota Vikings (7-5) at Detroit Lions (0-12)

The King says:

Vikes make deal with NFL devil: Take the Williams tackles back with help of some very good lawyers, win game, then lose Williamses for four games, including the wild-card game they’d have to play the first weekend of January.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 26, Detroit Lions 6

Benji says:

I know that the Lions are terrible, but I do not believe that any team in the modern era is capable of losing all of its games. Detroit will find a way to win one of its four remaining contests and as of right now this one looks like the most winnable game. The Lions are at home, against a team that does not have a consistent offense, has a weak secondary and is dealing with the distraction caused by looming suspensions to its star defensive tackles. I should also add that no team with a quarterback (Gus Frerotte) who throws an interception returned for either a touchdown or inside the ten-yard line in every game deserves to make the playoffs. At some point, these horrendous turnovers will come back to haunt Minnesota…

Prediction: Detroit Lions 20, Minnesota Vikings 16

Houston Texans (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-7)

The King says:

“We’re not worried about the playoffs right now,” Green Bay safety Nick Collins told us on Sirius NFL Radio’s “Opening Drive” this week. Hmmmm. Confucius say, “Man not worried about playoffs in December will be on Florida golf course in January.”

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 23, Houston Texans 20

Benji says:

Confucius say, “Man not worried about context of quote doomed to misinterpret meaning.” Your Majesty, would not your natural assumption be that Collins means the Packers are focused on winning one game at a time right now, realizing that there is no margin for error? That is, unless there is something imbedded in the rest of the quote (which you conveniently failed to disclose) that leads you to believe otherwise? As for this particular match-up, the Packers will be playing with a sense of desperation that should be enough to overcome another big game from Texans running back Steve Slaton against Green Bay’s porous run defense.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 30, Houston Texans 20

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (11-1)

The King says:

When Josh Cribbs is taking practice snaps at quarterback, it’s time to start dreaming of April 25, 2009. NFL draft day.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 37, Cleveland Browns 12

Benji says:

Your Majesty, you seem to have completely forgotten about Ken Dorsey, the star-in-waiting quarterback primed to make his first start on Sunday. Dorsey will…ah, who am I kidding…

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 37, Cleveland Browns 12

Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

The King says:

Bengals radio voice Dave Lapham on Marvin Lewis’ future: “If he doesn’t come back next year, it’s his call.” Agreed. And I say he returns, unwilling to forego $7 million over the next two years.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 23, Cincinnati Bengals 9

Benji says:

His Majesty has spoken: Marvin Lewis will return as coach of the Bengals next year, if he so desires. Bengals owner Mike Brown apparently has little say in the matter—after all, to fire Lewis would mean going against a royal decree. As for this game, the Colts are poised to make a run to the playoffs and the Bengals are looking to make a run at a high pick in next year’s draft.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 27, Cincinnati Bengals 10

Atlanta Falcons (8-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-6)

The King says:

Matt Ryan haiku, just for the fun of it. At home or on road, This rook’s mindful of one man Named Peyton Manning.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 31, New Orleans Saints 30

Benji says:

It turns out King’s a poet and I didn’t even know it. His clever haiku, however, fails to mention the trend that has dominated the NFC South divisional match-ups this season: the home team wins every time. I have picked the Saints to buck this trend twice already and there is no way I let them snooker me in again just because their season is basically over and they are playing a team that has a realistic playoff shot.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 30, Atlanta Falcons 27

Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)

The King says:

Or, should I say: Giants 19, Distractions 9.

Prediction: New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 9

Benji says:

Say what you will about the Giants being able to play through distractions and without Plaxico Burress—I, however, believe that the controversy surrounding Antonio Pierce (the Giants’ defensive signal caller) and his involvement in the Plaxico fiasco will end up hurting the team in the short term. Do not sell the Eagles short, either—Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook both looked much better last week and while their success came against a weak and tired Arizona defense, the Eagles’ offense is much better than it showed against the Bengals and Ravens. Remember the first match-up between these two teams: The Giants won a 36-31 shootout that could have gone either way. The Eagles know they can put up points against the Giants and need to win far more than their opponent does…

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 30, New York Giants 27

Washington Redskins (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

The King says:

I wouldn’t say the Redskins are in free-fall just yet, but I did note how strange it was the other day to see them all lined up in the locker room being fitted for parachutes.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 29, Washington Redskins 16

Benji says:

I also heard that Tom Petty is scheduled to sing the national anthem for this game. I cannot say I am altogether surprised to see a team that allows more points (18.5) than it scores (17.3) start to play down to statistical expectations…

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 23, Washington Redskins 17

Miami Dolphins (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)

The King says:

This goes against the grain of everything about the Bills playing in Toronto. This is the biggest scheduling break any road team could get in 2009. Instead of playing in December in lovely Orchard Park (forecast: 23 degrees, snow showers, 20-mph winds), Bills will play host on the fast track of Rogers Centre in Toronto, where it will be 72, or warmer. So why am I making this pick? Because I trust Marshawn Lynch. He’ll have a big day.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 23, Miami Dolphins 16

Benji says:

So let me get this straight, Your Majesty—the conditions completely favor the Dolphins, the team that is used to playing in warmer weather and would have been at a disadvantage had the game been played in Buffalo, but you favor the Bills based on your trust in Marshawn Lynch? The same Marshawn Lynch who has averaged fewer than four yards a carry in seven of the Bills’ twelve games this season? I suppose believing in Lynch is better than placing your support behind Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards, who only completed 10 of 22 passes against the 49ers last week and has more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (17). I think I’ll stick with the team that the conditions favor (Miami) and the quarterback (Chad Pennington) who takes care of the football (only eight interceptions thrown this year).

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 27, Buffalo Bills 16

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Denver Broncos (7-5)

The King says:

The two-headed, first-round running-back combo platter from Arkansas, Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, have a combined 671 rushing yards through 12 games. The guy who got them coffee and shined their cleats, Peyton Hillis, drafted in the seventh round (227th overall), has 285. I’ll bet you an egg nog latte Hillis outrushes the one inactive back (Jones) and the one active one (McFadden), combined, in December by more than 150 yards.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 42, Kansas City Chiefs 13

Benji says:

As impressed as I am by Peyton Hillis’ ability to out-rush a player who is out for the year with an injury, I do not think that this game will be a walk in the park for the Broncos. Kansas City defeated Denver rather easily earlier this season, and I believe that its offense has improved significantly since then. Luckily for the Broncos, cornerback Champ Bailey is finally healthy and should be able to contain the Chiefs’ top receiver Dwayne Bowe. If Bailey were still out, I might have favored Larry Johnson (who is sure to have another big day against the league’s 30th ranked run defense) and the Chiefs to pull off the season sweep; as it is, I can still guarantee it will be a much closer game than His Majesty seems to think it will be.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 26, Kansas City Chiefs 20

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)

The King says:

Odd. The Cards are going to be 8-5, with a playoff spot locked and only three games remaining … and we’re not going to have any idea if they can win a game in January.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 37, St. Louis Rams 13

Benji says:

Odd. An adjective with a period after it is not a complete sentence. On the other hand, the use of this flawed writing technique, in this instance, does create a sense of melodrama that might momentarily pique the reader’s interest in a lopsided match-up. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, Your Majesty, since I was so mean to you earlier.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 40, St. Louis Rams 16

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

The King says:

Flip a coin. Really. I have no clue who’ll win. I’m picking the Steelers because I don’t think we’ll see any sort of impact game from Marion Barber and whatever device they put on the bottom of his shoe to help him run in pain with his bad toe. If the Cowboys just run spread formation stuff primarily and the Steelers can tee off on Tony Romo, I think it’s trouble for Dallas.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Dallas Cowboys 15

Benji says:

According to the guys at Football Outsiders, “the only skill position player to play on a dislocated toe without missing a game is Antonio Gates, and he was a non factor for all of last season’s playoffs because of it.” The track record for this type of injury suggests that Dallas running back Marion Barber, who sustained a dislocated toe last week against the Seahawks, will either miss the game or be ineffective. The Cowboys are pretty thin at running back behind Barber and will likely be forced to pass on nearly every down. I cannot see them winning on the road with a one-dimensional offense against the league’s top defense.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Dallas Cowboys 17

New York Jets (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-8)

The King says:

Fear this game, Fireman Ed. Shaun Hill is playing well, and the Jets had better pressure him or he’s going to strafe that secondary.

Prediction: New York Jets 22, San Francisco 49ers 16

Benji says:

If I’m Jets coach Eric Mangini, I’m terrified of Shaun Hill right now. I mean, he quarterbacked an offense that scored a whopping ten points against the Bills’ defense last week—ten points, against the Bills! For those of you scoring at home, that would be the same Bills team that allowed 31 and 29 points to the Chiefs and Browns over the previous two weeks. I realize that the Jets’ secondary is weak and Hill could have a decent day throwing the ball, but do not give that much credit where it is not due, Your Majesty.

Prediction: New York Jets 26, San Francisco 49ers 16

New England Patriots (7-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-10)

The King says:

Most impressive player on a loser on Thanksgiving: Seattle rookie tight end John Carlson. Second-most impressive player on a loser on Thanksgiving: Matt Hasselbeck. That’s why this will be a game at the two-minute warning.

Prediction: New England Patriots 30, Seattle Seahawks 26

Benji says:

I cannot decide what impressed me more about Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck’s Thanksgiving performance: the nine points his offense scored or his 3 of 13 conversion rate on third down passing plays. There’s no way this game will be “a game at the two-minute warning,” because as bad as New England’s secondary is, Seattle’s is worse and the Seahawks really do not have the type of personnel to capitalize the way that the Patriots will.

Prediction: New England Patriots 35, Seattle Seahawks 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) at Carolina Panthers (9-3)

The King says:

You want to watch a great TEAM defense, with examples of players running from across the field on practically every snap to make sure there are seven men around the ball on running plays instead of four, and to assure that every receiver is tackled by a unit and not a man? Watch the Bucs on Monday night. I love the way the defense is flying around. You’re not going to see five great offensive highlights out of this game, that’s for sure.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Carolina Panthers 13

Benji says:

Your Majesty, I believe that both of these teams have solid defenses—Tampa Bay’s offense leaves a lot to be desired, though. The Buccaneers simply do not have any playmakers on offense now that age and injuries have finally caught up with Joey Galloway. Carolina’s offense, particularly its passing game, has been inconsistent at times, but the Panthers still have receiver Steve Smith (whose long reception in the fourth quarter led to the winning score against the Packers) and a very effective running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams (who had four touchdowns last week) and Jonathan Stewart. Plus, do you really want to pick against the home team dominance trend in NFC South divisional games? Look at how well that worked out for me last week…

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Michael Clayton?

In today’s edition of Monday Morning Quarterback, The Monarch formerly known as Doofus loses yet again at the “naming players correctly” game. Observe his paragraph on the Baltimore Ravens in his Fine Fifteen section:

6. Baltimore (8-4). A hard, but relatively friendly, remaining schedule. Three of four at home. Washington and Pittsburgh at home, at Dallas on a short week (Saturday night), Jacksonville at home. I asked sudden star wide receiver Michael Clayton what kind of rivalry the Ravens had with foe number one — Washington, seeing that the District of Columbia is 38 miles down the road from Baltimore. “I’m not sure,” Clayton said. “I don’t know really. All I know is they’re our next game.” The Ravens, obviously, are burning with passion to face their hated Beltway cousins.

I hate to break it to you, Your Majesty, but George Clooney does not play for the Ravens. Neither does Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Michael Clayton, a perpetual underachiever who has not gained as many as 400 receiving yards in a single season since his rookie year. Mark Clayton, the Baltimore Ravens receiver whom I believe you are referring to in your article, did have a career day (five catches for 164 yards) against the Bengals (the team with the second worst record in the league) but is he really a “sudden star”? In 2006, Mark Clayton had 67 receptions, 939 yards and five touchdowns. He is on pace to come up well short of those numbers this season—according to ESPN.com, his projected statistics are 37 catches, 633 yards and four touchdowns. Thanks for playing, Your Majesty. Better luck next time…

Update: As of 11 a.m., it appears that His Majesty (or some overworked intern who got a break from buffet-stocking duty) went back and edited the Clayton naming gaffe—which makes sense, I suppose, since the truth can be adjusted…

King Says, Benji Says (Week 13)

I apologize for both the lateness of this post and the idiotic expressions on our faces during our latest photo shoot—both offenses can be directly attributed to the turkey-induced comas from which His Majesty and I recently awoke. If I can’t beat The King (last week I lost yet another pick in the standings), I might as well join him in some wholesome, face-stuffing, artery-clogging fun, right?

Last Week:

Peter King (10-6)
Benji (9-7)
Brian (12-4)

Overall (not including the Thanksgiving games):

Peter King (115-60-1)
Benji (103-72-1)
Brian (114-61-1)

San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

The King says:

Trent Edwards. Reviled to revived.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, San Francisco 49ers 16

Benji says:

You might as well call His Majesty “Mr. A-to-Z,” because he is all about the word play. Personally, I would have preferred something a little more substantive that actually relates to the match-up at hand. I’m also not really buying the Trent Edwards “revival,” because I do not think he is that great a player and I have yet to see him come through against a team with a good defense. Fortunately for The King and the rest of the Trent Edwards fan club, the 49ers’ defense is pretty mediocre, ranking 24th in the league in sacks and 23rd in total yards allowed. Plus, now that winter has arrived, Buffalo’s home field advantage is sure to come into play—Sunday’s weather forecast calls for a game-time temperature in the low 30s with snow showers and squalls.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 23, San Francisco 49ers 12

Baltimore Ravens (7-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-9)

The King says:

Orange juice. It’s not just for breakfast anymore. Baltimore’s offense. It’s not just for nothing anymore.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 30, Cincinnati Bengals 9

Benji says:

Two word sentences that defy the need for proper punctuation. They’re not just for C-level high school English papers anymore. Double negatives. They’re not just for Eve 6 songs anymore. This game. It’s not much of a contest anymore, now that Carson Palmer needs Tommy John surgery and has been replaced at quarterback by Ryan Fitzpatrick. On the bright side, Fitzpatrick, an Ivy League grad, could probably get a job as His Majesty’s writing tutor if he decides to quit playing football.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 26, Cincinnati Bengals 13

Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)

The King says:

The wind won’t be the only thing howling off Lake Erie Sunday, and the turkey won’t be the only thing Browns fans will want on a platter. If you know what I mean.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 24, Cleveland Browns 6

Benji says:

It’s a good thing that His Majesty is married, because if his efforts at insinuation here are any indication, his skills for wooing the ladies must be almost as bad as mine. “Want to go check out another buffet spread? If you know what I mean…” Well, Your Majesty, I think that the Browns’ defense (now ranked 27th in the league in yards allowed, just ahead of Denver) is really struggling and the Indianapolis offense looks really good right now, which should add up to an easy win for the Colts. If you know what I mean…

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 30, Cleveland Browns 16

Carolina Panthers (8-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)

The King says:

The mysterious season of the Panthers continues. Though if I were John Fox this weekend, I’d insist on a heavy dose of DeAngelo Williams. Last four games for Williams: 108, 140, 120, 101 yards.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 33, Carolina Panthers 17

Benji says:

The mysterious season of the Panthers? How about the mysterious season of the Packers—two weeks ago, the defense completely flummoxed the Bears and last week it was ripped to shreds by the Saints. I solved the Carolina mystery a long time ago—the guilty party is quarterback Jake Delhomme. As he goes, the Panthers go, and if you look at the statistics, he has only faced one top-ten pass defense this season. In that game, against the Buccaneers, he threw three interceptions. Green Bay ranks sixth in the league in pass defense and I would expect an inspired effort from that squad on Sunday, as it is playing at home in a game that the Packers’ playoff hopes hinge upon.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 24, Carolina Panthers 13

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at St. Louis Rams (2-9)

The King says:

Chad Pennington is not just a complementary player anymore. He’s dangerous. Since he’s gotten the offense down pat, he’s been among the top three or four quarterbacks in football. In his last nine games, he’s had a QB rating higher than 90 in seven of them.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 40, St. Louis Rams 12

Benji says:

Pennington has performed very well this season but I still see him as a complementary player. Maybe I could be swayed by a more convincing argument, but by only using his QB rating (a dubious stat that you yourself have called into question) to substantiate your stance, Your Majesty, you are making him out to be exactly the type of role player that I think he is. If and when the Dolphins beat the Rams on Sunday, it will be because Miami’s team is better than St. Louis’s; not because Chad Pennington is an elite quarterback.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 27, St. Louis Rams 19

Denver Broncos (6-5) at New York Jets (8-3)

The King says:

Randy Cross pointed out this excellent stat to me: Of the Denver starting 24 — including punter and kicker — 18 are first-, second- or third-year players. Tough to go on the road in a very tough place with a lousy defense and a team of 25-year-olds and beat the hottest team in the AFC.

Prediction: New York Jets 37, Denver Broncos 13

Benji says:

Do not be fooled by the Jets’ defensive dominance in their game against the Titans last week. Tennessee was due to lose a game and New York’s defense, which does an excellent job of stopping the run (4th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry), matched up well against the Titans’ offense. The Jets still cannot stop the pass, ranking 26th in the league in passing yards allowed, just behind such elite passing defenses as the Saints’ and Broncos’ squads. Do not be drawn in by His Majesty’s ridiculous score line—this is a good match-up for Jay Cutler and the Broncos’ passing attack and it should be a close game.

Prediction: New York Jets 30, Denver Broncos 27

New Orleans Saints (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3)

The King says:

Drew Brees just dropped 51 on the Packers, but now he’ll face a real defense, with real speed. And for all of you wondering when I’m going to get my head out of my hiney and put Brees on my MVP Watch, uh, that will happen this week. It’s already happened.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29, New Orleans Saints 26

Benji says:

I know, I already learned the hard way not to bet against the home team in NFC South divisional match-ups, but all streaks were made to be broken, right? The Saints’ offense just looks unstoppable right now and, unlike His Majesty, I have some respect left for the Packers’ defense. I have very little respect for the Tampa Bay offense, which is only capable of scoring on a short field or against bad defenses. The Buccaneers’ defense should be able to contain Brees better than the Packers did, but I still think that this might turn into a shootout, a type of game that Tampa will struggle to win under any circumstance against any defense.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

New York Giants (10-1) at Washington Redskins (7-4)

The King says:

We talked about this Tuesday with center Shaun O’Hara on Sirius NFL Radio: Who’s the MVP of the Giants? Eli Manning? Brandon Jacobs? Split five ways between the offensive line? Justin Tuck? Fred Robbins? O’Hara said the right thing: This is the best tribute to the Giants you could make — there’s a slew of valuable players.

Prediction: New York Giants 19, Washington Redskins 16

Benji says:

As a general rule, Your Majesty, a good team is comprised of a group of “valuable players” and I think that we can agree that the 2008 Giants are a really good team. How does your discussion of which of these “valuable players” is most valuable relate to your pick, though? The Redskins are 7-4, are playing at home and you predict that they will keep the game close—I want to know why! I’ll tell you what I came up with, while I was surfing the internet on my Apple iMac, drinking Formula-50 Vitamin Water and unbuttoning the top button of my Ralph Lauren striped polo shirt (note to sponsors: if I missed making any plugs for your products, leave a comment and I’ll add them in later)—the Redskins are not as good as their 7-4 record. Their defense is solid (allowing the third fewest total yards in the league) but their offense cannot score touchdowns—they have only scored 201 points on the season, two more than the 199 that they have allowed. Washington will be hard-pressed to keep up with a Giants team that can score on the ground and through the air and has already had offensive success against Baltimore and Pittsburgh (the two defenses ranked ahead of Washington in yards allowed). The Redskins are about to be exposed as the pretenders that they really are…

Prediction: New York Giants 30, Washington Redskins 16

Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)

The King says:

What a weird game the Raiders had last Sunday, putting up 31 with the quarterback throwing it 11 times. But that’s a good series of play-calls from the coach — knowing his quarterback is still very much a work in progress and also knowing he can get great traction against a light-in-the-pants Denver defensive front.

Prediction: Oakland Raiders 31, Kansas City Chiefs 19

Benji says:

The Chiefs’ defensive front is certainly not much of an upgrade over the Broncos, as it is on pace to shatter the record for fewest sacks in a season, and the Kansas City defense as a whole has allowed the most yards per game in the league. That being said, the Oakland passing game is terrible and its running game is inconsistent. On the other hand, I really like the direction that Kansas City’s offense is going in: Tyler Thigpen has emerged has a promising young quarterback, Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are great options for him to throw to and Larry Johnson is rounding back into form at running back. I do not trust the Raiders to put forth two consecutive solid efforts on offense, and I know that Kansas City will put points on the board. Also, is Oakland good enough to sweep a season series with any team in the league, even one that has only won one game?

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 33, Oakland Raiders 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)

The King says:

In the last four weeks, Matt Cassel has outpassed Ben Roethlisberger by 93 yards a game. You know why I think he outplays Roethlisberger in Foxboro on Sunday? Because there’s no part of the playbook Josh McDaniels doesn’t trust him with now. With the leash off, I say Cassel will have enough gumption to lead four scoring drives.

Prediction: New England Patriots 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Benji says:

We are in agreement on one thing here, Your Majesty—Matt Cassel has really come into his own over the last few games. The Steelers’ defense is really good (tops in the league in both points and yards allowed) but is it good enough to slow down New England’s methodical passing game on the road? I would never have dreamed of writing that last sentence three weeks ago, but at this point I think that the Patriots are in good position to beat the Steelers at home in a game that they need to win more than their opponent does.

Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-7)

The King says:

Here’s the scariest note of all, if Denver loses at the Jets and the Chargers win this one: San Diego would be 5-7, Denver 6-6, setting up the legitimate chance that the AFC West could be won with a 7-9 record. Imagine San Diego hosting Denver in Week 17, with the Chargers 6-9 and Broncos 7-8. Chargers win. Let’s go to the tiebreakers. They’d have split the season series. Now we go to division record. As of this morning, San Diego’s 2-1 and Denver 2-2. The Chargers have Oakland at home and Kansas City on the road before Denver in the last game. Denver has Kansas City at home. If you ask me, the AFC West will be won with a 7-9 record.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 23, Atlanta Falcons 21

Benji says:

The scenario that His Majesty describes, a team with a losing record making the playoffs looks quite plausible at this point. The Broncos have lost games by multiple scores to the Raiders and the Chiefs, two teams that a real playoff contender would defeat rather easily; the Chargers have beaten all of the bad teams (they do not have a loss to a team with a losing record) and have played two likely playoff teams (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) close over the past two weeks. Denver has one of the worst defenses in the league and no running game to speak of; San Diego has LaDanian Tomlinson, who although declining is still far better than any runner on the Broncos, and a defense that, while not spectacular, can make some stops. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Chargers are a better team than the Broncos, whose only saving grace is their excellent passing game, and if San Diego wins this game, it will be in good position to make a late run at the division title. Let’s give the desperation formula one more try: the Chargers are a talented team, playing at home in a game that they need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 30, Atlanta Falcons 22

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

The King says:

Big day for Adrian Peterson, and it had better be one. He’s going to be tough to catch and trap on the carpet of the Metrodome.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 20, Chicago Bears 13

Benji says:

How quickly you forget the last meeting between these two teams, Your Majesty, a 48-41 shootout. Chicago won that game and should be favored to win this one as well, based on the match-up. Both the Vikings and the Bears have phenomenal run defenses, ranking second and third in the league, respectively, in yards allowed per carry, but also struggle to defend the pass consistently, posting average passing yardage numbers that rank them 22nd and 30th in the NFL. The team that gets better quarterback play will win this game, and while Gus Frerotte is 6-3 as the starter for the Vikings, he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in those nine games (12 to 11), including four picks in the aforementioned loss to Chicago earlier in the season; meanwhile, Kyle Orton has thrown only four interceptions during that span, compared to 11 touchdown passes (the same number as Frerotte). At some point, Frerotte’s inability to take care of the ball will derail Minnesota’s playoff hopes and I believe that it will happen this week, in a game between heated division rivals that both teams need to win.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 33, Minnesota Vikings 26

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Houston Texans (4-7)

The King says:

I have a feeling the Jaguars players are about to turn the station on Jack Del Rio. If they respond the rest of the season and the Jags win two or three games, I think he survives. If not, even a trusting owner like Wayne Weaver might have seen enough.

Prediction: Houston Texans 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Benji says:

Both His Majesty and I had high hopes for the Jaguars this year (predicting them to reach the AFC Championship Game) as I am sure the Jacksonville organization and fan base did as well. As they say, though, the best laid plans of goobers and doofuses often go awry. The Jaguars’ success last year was predicated on them running the ball effectively and controlling the clock; this year, due to injuries on the offensive line and Fred Taylor’s decline, their running game has been a shadow of its former self. The Texans struggle to stop opposing runners (allowing 4.5 yards per carry) but their offense has played well as of late and if they get a lead, the Jaguars and their anemic passing game will have a difficult time forging a comeback.

Prediction: Houston Texans 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

King Says, Benji Says (Week 12)

There’s no tying in football…oh, wait, yes there is! My picking match-up with His Majesty went the distance last week (a full 16 games!) but neither of us came away with anything to show for it. There’s still time left in the season for me to catch The King, but the weeks are starting to pile up. It’s time for me to make a move before it’s too late…

Last Week:

Peter King (10-5-1)
Benji (10-5-1)
Brian (10-5-1)

Overall (not including the Thursday game):

Peter King (105-54-1)
Benji (94-65-1)
Brian (102-57-1)

Carolina Panthers (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

The King says:

I’m not saying the Atlanta corners are Champ Bailey and Deion Sanders, but apparently these days against Jake Delhomme, they don’t have to be. No player needs a get-well game more than Delhomme.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 24, Carolina Panthers 13

Benji says:

Last week I tried to buck the trend of the home team winning in NFC South divisional games and I came away empty. I will not make that mistake again this week. His Majesty is also correct to point out the recent struggles of Jake Delhomme. The Panthers’ defense is solid (ranked fifth in the league in both passing yards and total yards allowed) but it is not good enough to win games without some sort of support from the passing game. They cannot expect to have two 100-yard rushers every week. The Falcons were a dropped touchdown by Roddy White away from beating the Broncos last week and I expect them to bounce back on Sunday in a game they need to win much more than their opponent does.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 27, Carolina Panthers 17

Houston Texans (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The King says:

Brady Quinn will play with a break at the tip of his index finger; Tony Romo couldn’t play with a break at the tip of his pinkie finger. Come to think of it, maybe Romo was the smart one here.

Prediction: Houston Texans 23, Cleveland Browns 21

Benji says:

Cleveland received a gift-wrapped win from the freefalling Bills on Monday night, but this match-up promises to be much tougher. Brady Quinn is sure to struggle throwing the ball with his injured finger (he became less accurate as the game went on against Buffalo) and it’s hard to imagine the Browns’ porous run defense (ranked 26th in the league in yards per carry) having an answer for Houston running back Steve Slaton, who rushed for 156 yards on 14 carries against the Colts last week.

Prediction: Houston Texans 27, Cleveland Browns 16

San Francisco 49ers (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4)

The King says:

I see where Shaun Hill was awarded the NFC Offensive Player of the Week Award for his role in the 49ers’ victory over the St. Louis JV team. Who voted? Hill’s aunt and uncle?

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 27, San Francisco 49ers 9

Benji says:

The Cowboys look to be back on track now that Tony Romo is back. They will not take the 49ers lightly (they cannot afford to at 6-4) but they should win pretty easily. Dallas just has too many offensive weapons for San Francisco to contain.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 30, San Francisco 49ers 17

Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Denver Broncos (6-4)

The King says:

I’ve had this Jay Cutler feature story for SI sitting in my computer so long that when I first did it I went to see a Rockies game while in Denver. With games like this one, I’m hoping Cutler helps me resuscitate my story.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 37, Oakland Raiders 15

Benji says:

Pardon me, Your Majesty, I was unaware that beating up on the hapless Raiders makes a player worthy of a feature story. You must really be struggling for material…

Prediction: Denver Broncos 37, Oakland Raiders 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Detroit Lions (0-10)

The King says:

I hear all the nice, respectful words the Bucs are saying about the toothless Leos. But this is a horrendous matchup for a plodding Detroit offense led by plumpish Daunte Culpepper. The running back, Kevin Smith, isn’t fast either. Tampa’s defense quasi-smothered Adrian Peterson last week and it will be uglier for the Lions.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Detroit Lions 10

Benji says:

Tampa Bay certainly has a team that is far superior to Detroit’s, but the “toothless Leos” are not going to coast their way to a winless season. Professional football players have more pride than that. The Buccaneers are right not to take them lightly…

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Detroit Lions 16

New York Jets (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (10-0)

The King says:

My daughter Mary Beth has caught me in the Peter King Challenge, and she picks teams based on uniform color. So now I’ve got to stop fooling around. I’m not picking against Jeff Fisher until at least 2014.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 31, New York Jets 20

Benji says:

The Titans are due to lose a game, but it’s not going to happen this week. The Jets will likely suffer a bit of a letdown after their big overtime win in New England last Thursday, and nothing short of a team’s best offensive effort will be enough to beat Tennessee, which is allowing the fewest points in the league (13.1) and has forced the second highest number of interceptions (15).

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 20, New York Jets 10

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

The King says:

I really feel for Trent Edwards. He’s going to be a good player and he’s just at the nadir of his confidence and accuracy right now. Playing in a place where you can’t hear a darn thing won’t help.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 20, Buffalo Bills 13

Benji says:

Trent Edwards is a mess right now—his pocket presence is terrible, he shies away from taking hits and short-arms throws, has struggled to throw accurately when he gets good protection and is making horrible decisions. The young quarterback for the Chiefs, Tyler Thigpen, on the other hand, has improved considerably over the course of the season and looks like a viable NFL starter.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Buffalo Bills 17

Chicago Bears (5-5) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)

The King says:

I had a defensive assistant tell me the other day that his team put on video of the Rams’ first defensive series against the Jets to show their players how not to hustle and swarm to the ball. The level of effort, this coach told me, was terrible.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 33, St. Louis Rams 10

Benji says:

No fair, Your Majesty, you received inside information! I was going to pick the Rams this week until you…just kidding, I don’t need an unnamed source to help me figure out that the St. Louis defense is terrible. I have two eyes and a brain.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 27, St. Louis Rams 17

New England Patriots (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (6-4)

The King says:

It’s not nice to embarrass Bill Belichick. He plays a team Sunday that rubbed his nose in the dirt at home with trick plays he should have been able to handle at Wesleyan, and he walks into a place with one of his football godfathers, Bill Parcells, watching down on him from a suite. You don’t often see Belichick under pressure, embarrassed.

Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Miami Dolphins 23

Benji says:

The Patriots are a very resilient bunch. They are 3-0 after losses this season, with each victory coming by a margin of nine points or more. They also are looking for revenge after the Dolphins embarrassed them in the two teams’ last meeting. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have barely escaped with wins against mediocre teams (Seattle and Oakland) the past two weeks.

Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Miami Dolphins 17

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)

The King says:

Assuming the Vikings will lose the best defensive tackle tandem in football — Kevin and Pat Williams — for a month after this game, you would think that since they’re playing for their very playoff existence, they would show up and play better in this game. I just don’t think they are good enough to do that.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Minnesota Vikings 10

Benji says:

The Vikings might not be good enough to beat a team with a good passing game on the road, but this is the Jacksonville Jaguars we are talking about here. Jacksonville can only win if it controls the ball in the running game and Minnesota’s run defense is ranked second in the league in yards per carry (3.1). It’s just a terrible match-up for Jacksonville and one it cannot win unless Minnesota quarterback Gus Frerotte implodes and Maurice Jones-Drew returns a kick for a touchdown.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-4)

The King says:

Andy Reid calls over Donovan McNabb just before kickoff and says, “Just wanted to alert you – we’re playing four quarters today. Sixty minutes. I’m going to do everything in my power to not get us into overtime because I don’t want you to be mentally taxed with such a difficult concept.”

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 22, Philadelphia Eagles 20

Benji says:

Here we go, I was wondering how long it would take for His Majesty to make a joke about Donovan McNabb’s intelligence in the aftermath of the Eagles’ tie last week with the Bengals. I am not ready to give up on the Eagles yet. Every quarterback goes through bad stretches and McNabb is a much better player than he was last Sunday. I have much more confidence in him rebounding with a good game against the Ravens than I do in Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco coming through against the Eagles’ defense, which is sure to be blitz-heavy after his struggles against the Giants’ pressure-based defense last week.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27, Baltimore Ravens 16

New York Giants (9-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-3)

The King says:

If I thought Kurt Warner could be the Kurt Warner of the last months in this one, I’d certainly pick the Cards. But this is not Seattle’s pass rush. It is not San Francisco’s. It’s not St. Louis’. The Giants front seven is going to pressure Warner into making 2-3 throws he wishes he hadn’t and that will be the difference.

Prediction: New York Giants 29, Arizona Cardinals 26

Benji says:

Maybe Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are headed for a fall but I just do not see it. A team with that many skilled receivers and a talented quarterback with a quick release that can get them the ball cannot be stifled by pressure alone. The Giants’ offense will have to score a lot of points to keep up. New York is certainly capable of doing so, and this should be a fun game to watch…

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 30, New York Giants 27

Washington Redskins (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (2-8)

The King says:

Is it my imagination, or do the Redskins play in Seattle every three or four weeks?

Prediction: Washington Redskins 23, Seattle Seahawks 18

Benji says:

Matt Hasselbeck looked really rusty against the Cardinals last week. Maybe after a game under his belt, he will be more effective this week? I wouldn’t count on it, because Washington’s defense is better than Arizona’s.

Prediction: Washington Redskins 20, Seattle Seahawks 13

Indianapolis Colts (6-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The King says:

There must be something about the airport in San Diego. Or the air. Since Week 2, San Diego is 0-5 on the road and 4-0 at home. In Week 3 in San Diego, Brett Favre played like he acted in “There’s Something About Mary” which was really not at an Oscar level. Ditto Matt Cassel in Week 6. I don’t know, maybe Peyton Manning will play great out there but home has been a pretty sweet home for the Chargers in the past couple months.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 31, Indianapolis Colts 20

Benji says:

I know, I know, the “desperation formula” technically failed twice last week, but I think that I was too liberal in my assignments of “talented teams.” Upon further review, Buffalo should never have qualified for such a distinction. I am going to give the formula one more spin and see what happens: The Chargers are a talented team, playing at home in a must-win game.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 30, Indianapolis Colts 20

Green Bay Packers (5-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

The King says:

The Saints, who last played at home when Danny Abromowitz suited up, are now in danger of having Drew Brees break one of the sports most respected records — Dan Marino’s 5,084 passing yards in a season — in some meaningless games. Going 5-6 with suspensions looming is not a good sign in a division with three teams better than you.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 36, New Orleans Saints 27

Benji says:

I’ve got to go with my preseason pick for the NFC’s Super Bowl entrant here, the Green Bay Packers. New Orleans cannot play defense at all (ranked 24th in the league in yards allowed) and despite the tremendous statistical season that Drew Brees is having, it has struggled to find week-to-week consistency in terms of scoring points. Green Bay looked very impressive last week against the Bears and nearly beat the undefeated Titans three weeks ago. Its pass defense has allowed the second fewest passing yards per game and has forced the most interceptions (16) in the league.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 30, New Orleans Saints 20

King Says, Benji Says (Week 12 Empty Throne Edition)

Okay, it’s official—His Majesty stood me up. I feel like Lloyd Christmas right now. I’ve been eagerly awaiting his arrival since Wednesday afternoon and as of 1:40 P.M. (EDT) on Thursday, I’m still left sitting next to an empty throne. He must have found a better date—maybe his mom offered to take him out to an all-you-can-eat buffet? Anyway, lucky for me, he left his picks outline on his throne before he took off so I should be able to piece together his prediction…

Cincinnati Bengals (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)

The King’s Outline says:

Waste a sentence or two reflecting on the Bengals/Eagles 13-13 tie last Sunday. Be sure to include a comical comment about Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis’s reaction to the outcome. Probably include a useless comment about #85 with the sole purpose of calling him by his former name (Chad Johnson) instead of his new legal name (Chad Ocho Cinco). Most importantly, do not include any actual analysis of this match-up between the Steelers and Bengals. Try not even to mention the Steelers if it can be helped.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 25, Cincinnati Bengals 5

Benji says:

There’s not a whole lot that the Bengals can take away from their tie with the Eagles. Donovan McNabb played probably the worst game of his career and Cincinnati was completely unable to capitalize. McNabb completed less than 50 percent of his passes while turning the ball over four times and the Bengals were still only able to score 13 points in five quarters of football. And it’s not even as though the Bengals’ defense played particularly well. I witnessed two different occasions when McNabb missed Westbrook when he was wide open and had no defenders in front of him. Cincinnati has scored the second fewest points in the league this season (13.8, ahead of only Oakland) and Pittsburgh has surrendered the second fewest (15, behind only Tennessee). The Bengals’ offense is no match for the Pittsburgh defense—the only way that Cincinnati could win this game would be if Roethlisberger completely imploded. But would that even be enough? Last week, the other team’s franchise quarterback played as poorly as he possibly could and the Bengals still couldn’t muster a win.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 9

I’ll be back with the rest of my picks tomorrow…hopefully His Majesty will decide to join me this time…

King Says, Benji Says (Week 11)

So far, I have not offered my voters change that they can believe in, but the NFL season is still young. With nearly half of the regular season remaining, I have plenty of time to make up ground on His Majesty. So what if I cannot win consistently at home…I’m ready to pull a page out of the New York Giants’ playbook and pick up a win on the road during my trip to Virginia.

Last Week:

Peter King (10-4)
Benji (9-5)
Brian (11-3)

Overall (not including the Thursday game):

Peter King (95-49)
Benji (84-60)
Brian (92-52)

Denver Broncos (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The King says:

I know, I know. The Falcons are hotter than hot, and Denver can’t play defense. I just have a feeling about this one. Jay Cutler just threw for more yards in a game than John Elway ever did. Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall on turf — heck, even Tatum Bell on turf — will present the Falcons more problems that they can solve. I’d be pretty boring if I picked the chalk every week.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 33, Atlanta Falcons 28

Benji says:

While Cutler did throw for more yards than Elway ever did last week, his defense is allowing more points and yards than any Denver defensive unit during the Elway era. The Broncos are especially susceptible to the run (allowing 5.1 yards per rushing attempt) and consequently the play action pass, which is exactly what the Atlanta offense excels at. Once you factor in that the Falcons are the home team, this match-up seems to heavily favor Atlanta.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 30, Denver Broncos 20

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-8)

The King says:

Sure, let’s fire Andy Reid. That’s a smart idea. Let’s dump a coach averaging 10.5 wins a year, who has piloted the Eagles to more wins than any other NFC team in the past 10 years, because he’s made the playoffs six times in nine previous years but hasn’t won a Super Bowl, and because he lost to the best team in football by five at home. That’s the ticket. That’s what you want to do with your franchise. Let’s let WIP run the team and pick the next coach.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27, Cincinnati Bengals 17

Benji says:

Who said anything about Andy Reid’s job security? I want to know why you picked the Eagles to win this game, Your Majesty. I am picking them because the Bengals are a weak team and Philadelphia thrives against weak teams. That wasn’t so hard, was it?

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 34, Cincinnati Bengals 13

Chicago Bears (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-5)

The King says:

The Bears need Kyle Orton to return, and he’ll try. Regardless, this is Matt Forte’s game. Green Bay’s playing the run like Peter King and Dr. Z are the starting defensive tackles.

Prediction: Chicago Bears 23, Green Bay Packers 17

Benji says:

I’m throwing all statistical match-ups out the window and going to the desperation formula here: The Packers are a talented team, playing at home, in a must-win situation.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 27, Chicago Bears 17

Houston Texans (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-4)

The King says:

Don’t fire Gary Kubiak. He deserves one more year. Maybe he needs to tweak his staff a bit, but you can’t give a good man with burgeoning talent two and a half years and decide he’s not the man for the job — unless there’s something lacking in his approach or his skill-set as a coach. Plus he hasn’t lost the team.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 25, Houston Texans 20

Benji says:

In Sage we no longer trust–I’ve officially given up on the turnover-prone Rosenfels. Quarterback play, whether it be Schaub’s inability to make good reads against pressure defenses or Rosenfel’s recent interception streak, is holding the Texans back from being a winning team. The Colts have healed up and are beginning to click just in time to make a run at a wildcard spot.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 27, Houston Texans 20

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

The King says:

Unlike the Bucs — who had no respect for the Chiefs — the Saints will enter Arrowhead Stadium with a fear of losing and falling out of what limited playoff contention they’re in. And shazam! Jeremy Shockey will score a touchdown! And Drew Brees will shake his hand! Peace and harmony on the Bayou for a few minutes!

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 30, Kansas City Chiefs 13

Benji says:

The Saints need to win this game, but they better be on their toes. The Chiefs have looked pretty good the last few weeks and quarterback Tyler Thigpen is looking more and more like a viable NFL starter. The New Orleans offense needs to show some more week-to-week consistency if the team has any shot at making the playoffs…

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 30, Kansas City Chiefs 27

Oakland Raiders (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

The King says:

Repeat after me: On Sunday night, the Miami Dolphins will be 6-4, tied for an AFC Wild Card spot. On the other side, I don’t care if Lane Kiffin, Greg Knapp, Tom Cable, Larry the Cable Guy or Tom Flores calls the plays for the lowest-scoring team in football. It won’t help.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 37, Oakland Raiders 10

Benji says:

Jake Delhomme had quite possibly the worst performance by a starting quarterback this season (7 of 27 for 72 yards, zero touchdowns and four interceptions) in last week’s game against the Raiders, and Oakland had absolutely no chance of winning the game. That’s all you need to know about the state of the Raiders’ offense at the moment…

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 27, Oakland Raiders 9

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)

The King says:

How do you not love Joe Flacco nine games into his career? He’s on a mistake-free, four-game winning streak (six touchdowns, no interceptions, 107.5 rating in the past month). This is the game, 68 miles north of his Jersey hometown, that humbles him. Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sends the kitchen sink at Flacco — plus quite a few utensils, plates, pots and pans — and pressures him into two turnovers. The Giants will need those to beat this defense.

Prediction: New York Giants 19, Baltimore Ravens 16

Benji says:

Both defenses are really good (Baltimore has allowed the second fewest yards in the league while the Giants rank third in that category) and both offenses have played very well over the past month. Unlike His Majesty, however, I am still not completely sold on Joe Flacco. He has five touchdowns and zero turnovers over the past three weeks, but his success over that time has come against three weak defenses (Oakland, Cleveland and Houston). I will have to see him succeed against an elite defense before I start taking him seriously.

Prediction: New York Giants 23, Baltimore Ravens 13

Minnesota Vikings (5-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

The King says:

Very underrated fun game of the weekend. Adrian Peterson gets to run against the Bucs’ speed defense for the first time in his life, but the game will be won, I believe, by the Tampa pass-rush tormenting a slow-on-the-draw Gus Frerotte.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Minnesota Vikings 23

Benji says:

Minnesota quarterback Gus Frerotte has thrown eight interceptions in the last three games. The Vikings cannot continue to win with “Gunslinger Gus” throwing the ball up for grabs on nearly every drive. I do not like their chances on the road against a good Tampa defense (which has forced 12 interceptions already this season) that will almost certainly take advantage of every Frerotte miscue.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Minnesota Vikings 10

Detroit Lions (0-9) at Carolina Panthers (7-2)

The King says:

Jake Delhomme is so embarrassed by the worst game of his career (7-for-27 at Oakland, with four interceptions) that he hits Steve Smith on a 78-yard go-route on the first play from scrimmage. Detroit is left to ponder who it might beat in the final six weeks. Current record of final six Lions foes: 32-22 — and none is worse than a game under .500.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 23, Detroit Lions 9

Benji says:

Delhomme better play better in this game than he did last time out. A team like the Lions that is hungry for a victory will not lie down like the Raiders did last week. If the Panthers can take care of the ball, however, their defense should be able to hold down the Detroit offense.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 20, Detroit Lions 17

Tennessee Titans (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)

The King says:

Week 11, 2003: Chiefs, 9-0, fresh off the SI cover, travel to up-and-down Cincinnati. The Bengals, destined for an 8-8 finish, stun Chiefs 24-19. Week 11, 2008: Titans, 9-0, a week removed from SI cover, travel to up-and-down Jacksonville. The Jags, destined for an 8-8 finish, stun Titans 24-19.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Tennessee Titans 19

Benji says:

I agree with your pick, Your Majesty, if not your reasoning. Let’s give that desperation formula one more spin, shall we? The Jaguars are a talented team (I picked them to make it to the AFC Championship Game) playing at home in a game that they desperately need to win.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Tennessee Titans 19

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

The King says:

They don’t come much more must-winnish in Week 11 than this one for Pittsburgh, which must stop the bleeding and restore a little bit of Ben Roethlisberger’s confidence after a horrific game against Indy. On the flip side, I predict there will be steam coming out of Charger GM A.J. Smith’s ears after the game — and that does not bode well for the January job prospects of one Norval Turner.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 31, San Diego Chargers 16

Benji says:

Your Majesty, do you truly believe that the Steelers are in a more desperate situation than the Chargers are right now? If Pittsburgh loses, at 6-4 it is still in good shape to grab a wildcard berth and/or compete for the division title with Baltimore; if the Chargers lose, then their season is pretty much over. Ben Roethlisberger needs to take better care of the ball than he has over the last few weeks because the Chargers, if nothing else, can score some points through the air if given the opportunity. It should be a close game, but I think that San Diego’s playoff chances survive to see another week…

Prediction: San Diego Chargers 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

St. Louis Rams (2-7) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)

The King says:

I’m reminded of a “Chicago” song of my youth: Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care?

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 23, St. Louis Rams 10

Benji says:

In a battle of the NFC West bottom feeders, I will take the ‘9ers because they showed a tremendous amount of effort and resilience in their Monday Night game with the Cardinals and came up one yard short of a victory, while the Rams were shellacked by the Jets.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, St. Louis Rams 20

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-7)

The King says:

The cavalry rides in for Seattle. The cavalry is bald. See if you can figure that one out.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 22, Arizona Cardinals 20

Benji says:

Matt Hasselbeck’s return to the Seahawks will not be enough to lead them to a win over the division leading Cardinals and quarterback Kurt Warner. Seattle’s defensive backs are no match for Arizona’s talented receivers, and its front seven has struggled to pressure the passer this season. Even if Arizona plays an average game, Seattle’s defense will be unable to stop it from scoring.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 30, Seattle Seahawks 20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (6-3)

The King says:

King drinks Tony Romo Kool Aid. Totally buys into Cowboys getting fixed by return of fearless leader. Ignores one of leakiest offensive lines in football. Will get comeuppance Sunday at midnight.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 30, Washington Redskins 23

Benji says:

Benji also drinks Tony Romo Kool Aid…partly because Benji does not drink the Washington Redskins Kool Aid. Washington is a weak 6-3, only scoring 0.3 points more than it has allowed (19 to 18.7). With Romo back in the fold, the Cowboys’ offense should start scoring points again like it has for the past couple seasons. I doubt that the Redskins’ offense, which, again, is averaging fewer than 20 points a game, will be able to keep up.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 30, Washington Redskins 19

Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-4)

The King says:

First game in NFL history played with protective netting around both quarterbacks. You know why? Because the offensive coordinators in this game, Rob Chudzinski and Turk Schonert, are smarter than we are.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, Cleveland Browns 18

Benji says:

While I have not been overly impressed with Trent Edwards the past few weeks (his lack of pocket mobility and unwillingness to take a hit while delivering the ball were very troubling in last week’s game against Denver), I suppose that with Buffalo at 5-4, this game qualifies for my desperation factor formula as well. Buffalo is a talented team, playing at home in a game that it needs to win if it wants to have any shot at winning the division or earning a wild card berth.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 23, Cleveland Browns 20